Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Prediction cone · now → 1 year
log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dottedDUKOIN outlook
Neutral
Neutral — 7 buy, 8 sell, 1 neutral indicator votes.
Strong Sell on the 4h chart.
Price is below the 200-day average (−6.5%).
Funding −15.3% annualised on Bybit: shorts paying longs — short-squeeze fuel. Open interest $35.53M.
Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).
Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.
checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.
Bull, base & bear targets
| Scenario | 7 days | 30 days | 1 year | What it would take |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull · top 10% | $331 +18% | $417 +49% | $1,195 +328% | Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze (shorts are paying funding right now). |
| Base · median | $279 | $279 | $279 | Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue. |
| Bear · bottom 10% | $236 −16% | $187 −33% | $65.23 −77% | Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further. |
Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.
Past BCH forecasts vs reality
| Issued | Horizon | From | 80% range | Outcome | Inside? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 00:05 | 4H | $275 | $269–$281 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 24H | $275 | $259–$291 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 7D | $275 | $232–$325 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 30D | $275 | $184–$410 | pending | — |
| Oct 13 20:05 | 4H | $273 | $267–$280 | $275 +0.4% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 16:05 | 4H | $273 | $267–$279 | $273 +0.2% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 08:05 | 4H | $274 | $268–$280 | $269 −1.9% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 24H | $274 | $258–$291 | $275 +0.2% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 7D | $274 | $229–$328 | pending | — |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 30D | $274 | $179–$420 | pending | — |
Live record: 4 hours 3 scored · 24 hours 1 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins
How this prediction is made
- Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
- Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
- No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
- Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.
Full methodology · Bitcoin Cash research page · Alert me on big moves
Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.