Cardano price prediction
Prediction cone · now → 1 year
log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dottedDUKOIN outlook
Neutral
Neutral — 8 buy, 7 sell, 1 neutral indicator votes.
Strong Sell on the 4h chart.
Price is above the 200-day average (+10.3%).
Funding −2.6% annualised on Bybit: neutral funding. Open interest $63.92M.
Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).
Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.
checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.
Bull, base & bear targets
| Scenario | 7 days | 30 days | 1 year | What it would take |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull · top 10% | $0.2722 +16% | $0.3339 +42% | $0.8445 +260% | Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze (shorts are paying funding right now). |
| Base · median | $0.2346 | $0.2346 | $0.2346 | Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue. |
| Bear · bottom 10% | $0.2021 −14% | $0.1648 −30% | $0.06515 −72% | Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further. |
Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.
Past ADA forecasts vs reality
| Issued | Horizon | From | 80% range | Outcome | Inside? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 04:05 | 4H | $0.2367 | $0.2309–$0.2426 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 4H | $0.2358 | $0.2301–$0.2417 | $0.2367 +0.4% | ✓ |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 24H | $0.2358 | $0.2243–$0.2479 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 7D | $0.2358 | $0.204–$0.2725 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 30D | $0.2358 | $0.1673–$0.3324 | pending | — |
| Oct 13 20:05 | 4H | $0.2372 | $0.2314–$0.2431 | $0.2358 −0.6% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 16:05 | 4H | $0.2351 | $0.2294–$0.241 | $0.2372 +0.9% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 08:05 | 4H | $0.2381 | $0.2323–$0.244 | $0.2326 −2.3% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 24H | $0.2381 | $0.2261–$0.2508 | $0.2358 −1.0% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 7D | $0.2381 | $0.2049–$0.2767 | pending | — |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 30D | $0.2381 | $0.1667–$0.3401 | pending | — |
Live record: 4 hours 4 scored · 24 hours 1 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins
How this prediction is made
- Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
- Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
- No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
- Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.
Full methodology · Cardano research page · Alert me on big moves
Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.