Chainlink price prediction
Prediction cone · now → 1 year
log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dottedDUKOIN outlook
Bullish
Buy — 8 buy, 6 sell, 2 neutral indicator votes.
Sell on the 4h chart.
Price is above the 200-day average (+32.9%).
Funding +0.7% annualised on Bybit: neutral funding. Open interest $70.28M.
Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).
Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.
checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.
Bull, base & bear targets
| Scenario | 7 days | 30 days | 1 year | What it would take |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull · top 10% | $14.69 +13% | $17.39 +34% | $37.42 +188% | Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze. |
| Base · median | $12.99 | $12.99 | $12.99 | Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue. |
| Bear · bottom 10% | $11.49 −12% | $9.70 −25% | $4.51 −65% | Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further. |
Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.
Past LINK forecasts vs reality
| Issued | Horizon | From | 80% range | Outcome | Inside? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 04:05 | 4H | $13.00 | $12.70–$13.30 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 4H | $12.91 | $12.62–$13.21 | $13.00 +0.7% | ✓ |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 24H | $12.91 | $12.37–$13.47 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 7D | $12.91 | $11.42–$14.60 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 30D | $12.91 | $9.64–$17.28 | pending | — |
| Oct 13 20:05 | 4H | $12.92 | $12.63–$13.22 | $12.91 −0.1% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 16:05 | 4H | $12.93 | $12.64–$13.23 | $12.92 −0.1% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 08:05 | 4H | $12.99 | $12.69–$13.29 | $12.82 −1.3% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 24H | $12.99 | $12.42–$13.59 | $12.91 −0.6% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 7D | $12.99 | $11.40–$14.81 | pending | — |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 30D | $12.99 | $9.52–$17.72 | pending | — |
Live record: 4 hours 4 scored · 24 hours 1 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins
How this prediction is made
- Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
- Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
- No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
- Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.
Full methodology · Chainlink research page · Alert me on big moves
Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.