Dogecoin price prediction
Prediction cone · now → 1 year
log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dottedDUKOIN outlook
Bearish
Sell — 4 buy, 11 sell, 1 neutral indicator votes.
Sell on the 4h chart.
Price is below the 200-day average (−3.1%).
Funding +4.9% annualised on Bybit: neutral funding. Open interest $115.28M.
Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).
Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.
checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.
Bull, base & bear targets
| Scenario | 7 days | 30 days | 1 year | What it would take |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull · top 10% | $0.09504 +12% | $0.1111 +31% | $0.2254 +166% | Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze. |
| Base · median | $0.08484 | $0.08484 | $0.08484 | Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue. |
| Bear · bottom 10% | $0.07573 −11% | $0.0648 −24% | $0.03193 −62% | Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further. |
Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.
Past DOGE forecasts vs reality
| Issued | Horizon | From | 80% range | Outcome | Inside? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 00:05 | 4H | $0.08443 | $0.08271–$0.0862 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 24H | $0.08443 | $0.08119–$0.08781 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 7D | $0.08443 | $0.07537–$0.09459 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 30D | $0.08443 | $0.06449–$0.1105 | pending | — |
| Oct 13 20:05 | 4H | $0.08456 | $0.08283–$0.08632 | $0.08443 −0.1% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 16:05 | 4H | $0.08443 | $0.08271–$0.0862 | $0.08456 +0.1% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 08:05 | 4H | $0.08474 | $0.08301–$0.08651 | $0.08344 −1.5% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 24H | $0.08474 | $0.08126–$0.08837 | $0.08443 −0.4% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 7D | $0.08474 | $0.07503–$0.09571 | pending | — |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 30D | $0.08474 | $0.06349–$0.1131 | pending | — |
Live record: 4 hours 3 scored · 24 hours 1 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins
How this prediction is made
- Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
- Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
- No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
- Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.
Full methodology · Dogecoin research page · Alert me on big moves
Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.