DK-EWMA-LN v2 · ENA prediction

Ethena price prediction

$0.2086

−3.58%

Prediction cone · now → 1 year

log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dotted

DUKOIN outlook

Bullish

1H · Sell 4H · Strong Sell 1D · Buy

Daily technicals40%

Buy — 9 buy, 6 sell, 1 neutral indicator votes.

4-hour technicals15%

Strong Sell on the 4h chart.

Long-term trend15%

Price is above the 200-day average (+73.7%).

Derivatives positioning15%

Funding −8.2% annualised on Bybit: neutral funding. Open interest $81.30M.

Market sentiment15%

Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).

Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.

4 hoursintraday

pending

first slot not issued yet

24 hourschecked

$0.1921 – $0.2266

−7.9% / +8.6% · live

7 dayschecked

$0.1642 – $0.265

−21.3% / +27.0% · live

30 dayschecked

$0.1183 – $0.368

−43.3% / +76.4% · live

90 dayschecked

$0.07633 – $0.5702

−63.4% / +173.3% · live

1 yearscenario

$0.02663 – $1.63

−87.2% / +683.4% · live

checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.

Bull, base & bear targets

Scenario	7 days	30 days	1 year	What it would take
Bull · top 10%	$0.265 +27%	$0.368 +76%	$1.63 +683%	Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze (shorts are paying funding right now).
Base · median	$0.2086	$0.2086	$0.2086	Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue.
Bear · bottom 10%	$0.1642 −21%	$0.1183 −43%	$0.02663 −87%	Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further.

Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.

Past ENA forecasts vs reality

Issued	Horizon	From	80% range	Outcome	Inside?
No forecasts recorded yet for this coin.

Live record: 4 hours 0 scored · 24 hours 0 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins

How this prediction is made

Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.

Full methodology · Ethena research page · Alert me on big moves

Not financial advice

Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.