DK-EWMA-LN v2 · DOT prediction

Polkadot price prediction

$1.16

−1.14%

Prediction cone · now → 1 year

log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dotted

DUKOIN outlook

Neutral

1H · Neutral 4H · Strong Sell 1D · Sell

Daily technicals40%

Sell — 5 buy, 7 sell, 4 neutral indicator votes.

4-hour technicals15%

Strong Sell on the 4h chart.

Long-term trend15%

Price is above the 200-day average (+10.6%).

Derivatives positioning15%

Funding +11.0% annualised on Bybit: longs paying a normal premium — steady demand. Open interest $25.27M.

Market sentiment15%

Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).

Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.

4 hoursintraday

pending

first slot not issued yet

24 hourschecked

$1.09 – $1.23

−5.8% / +6.1% · live

7 dayschecked

$0.9762 – $1.38

−15.8% / +18.8% · live

30 dayschecked

$0.7703 – $1.75

−33.6% / +50.6% · live

90 dayschecked

$0.5616 – $2.40

−51.6% / +106.5% · live

1 yearscenario

$0.2628 – $5.12

−77.3% / +341.5% · live

checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.

Bull, base & bear targets

Scenario	7 days	30 days	1 year	What it would take
Bull · top 10%	$1.38 +19%	$1.75 +51%	$5.12 +341%	Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze.
Base · median	$1.16	$1.16	$1.16	Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue.
Bear · bottom 10%	$0.9762 −16%	$0.7703 −34%	$0.2628 −77%	Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further.

Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.

Past DOT forecasts vs reality

Issued	Horizon	From	80% range	Outcome	Inside?
No forecasts recorded yet for this coin.

Live record: 4 hours 0 scored · 24 hours 0 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins

How this prediction is made

Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.

Full methodology · Polkadot research page · Alert me on big moves

Not financial advice

Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.