DK-EWMA-LN v2 · QNT prediction

Quant price prediction

$216.46

−5.29%

Prediction cone · now → 1 year

log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dotted

DUKOIN outlook

Bullish

1H · Strong Sell 4H · Sell 1D · Buy

Daily technicals40%

Buy — 8 buy, 6 sell, 2 neutral indicator votes.

4-hour technicals15%

Sell on the 4h chart.

Long-term trend15%

Price is above the 200-day average (+154.8%).

Derivatives positioning15%

Funding −12.5% annualised on Bybit: shorts paying longs — short-squeeze fuel. Open interest $19.25M.

Market sentiment15%

Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).

Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.

4 hoursintraday

$221 – $232

−2.4% / +2.5%

24 hourschecked

$193 – $265

−14.8% / +17.3%

7 dayschecked

$142 – $359

−37.1% / +58.9%

30 dayschecked

$75.30 – $679

−66.7% / +200.2%

90 dayschecked

Pro

Unlock 90d & 1y

1 yearscenario

Pro

Unlock 90d & 1y

checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.

Bull, base & bear targets

Scenario	7 days	30 days	1 year	What it would take
Bull · top 10%	$339 +57%	$629 +191%	$10.4K +4,695%	Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze (shorts are paying funding right now).
Base · median	$216	$216	$216	Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue.
Bear · bottom 10%	$138 −36%	$74.46 −66%	$4.51 −98%	Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further.

Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.

Past QNT forecasts vs reality

Issued	Horizon	From	80% range	Outcome	Inside?
Oct 13 08:05	4H	$226	$221–$232	$205 −9.1%	✗
Oct 13 00:05	24H	$226	$193–$265	$210 −6.9%	✓
Oct 13 00:05	7D	$226	$142–$359	pending	—
Oct 13 00:05	30D	$226	$75.30–$679	pending	—

Live record: 4 hours 1 scored · 24 hours 1 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins

How this prediction is made

Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.

Full methodology · Quant research page · Alert me on big moves

Not financial advice

Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.