DK-EWMA-LN v2 · ZEC prediction

Zcash price prediction

$1,265

+4.48%

Prediction cone · now → 1 year

log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dotted

DUKOIN outlook

Neutral

1H · Sell 4H · Strong Sell 1D · Neutral

Daily technicals40%

Neutral — 6 buy, 6 sell, 4 neutral indicator votes.

4-hour technicals15%

Strong Sell on the 4h chart.

Long-term trend15%

Price is above the 200-day average (+91.5%).

Derivatives positioning15%

Funding −1.0% annualised on Bybit: neutral funding. Open interest $165.22M.

Market sentiment15%

Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).

Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.

4 hoursintraday

$1,183 – $1,258

−3.0% / +3.1%

24 hourschecked

$1,140 – $1,305

−6.5% / +7.0%

7 dayschecked

$1,002 – $1,484

−17.8% / +21.7%

30 dayschecked

$766 – $1,943

−37.2% / +59.3%

90 dayschecked

Pro

Unlock 90d & 1y

1 yearscenario

Pro

Unlock 90d & 1y

checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.

Bull, base & bear targets

Scenario	7 days	30 days	1 year	What it would take
Bull · top 10%	$1,539 +22%	$2,015 +59%	$6,845 +441%	Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze (shorts are paying funding right now).
Base · median	$1,265	$1,265	$1,265	Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue.
Bear · bottom 10%	$1,040 −18%	$794 −37%	$234 −82%	Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further.

Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.

Past ZEC forecasts vs reality

Issued	Horizon	From	80% range	Outcome	Inside?
Oct 14 00:05	4H	$1,220	$1,183–$1,258	pending	—
Oct 14 00:05	24H	$1,220	$1,140–$1,305	pending	—
Oct 14 00:05	7D	$1,220	$1,002–$1,484	pending	—
Oct 14 00:05	30D	$1,220	$766–$1,943	pending	—
Oct 13 20:05	4H	$1,219	$1,182–$1,258	$1,220 +0.0%	✓
Oct 13 16:05	4H	$1,198	$1,162–$1,236	$1,219 +1.8%	✓
Oct 13 08:05	4H	$1,227	$1,190–$1,266	$1,184 −3.6%	✗
Oct 13 00:05	24H	$1,227	$1,141–$1,320	$1,220 −0.6%	✓
Oct 13 00:05	7D	$1,227	$994–$1,515	pending	—
Oct 13 00:05	30D	$1,227	$745–$2,023	pending	—

Live record: 4 hours 3 scored · 24 hours 1 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins

How this prediction is made

Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.

Full methodology · Zcash research page · Alert me on big moves

Not financial advice

Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.