Pro lessonHow AI Predictions Work · 3/43 min read
Point forecasts, probability ranges and calibration
Learn the difference between a single-price forecast and a probability range, what an 80% range means, and how to check if it is honest.
Forecasts come in two main shapes. Knowing the difference helps you judge any prediction you see.
A point forecast gives one number: "BTC will be $70,000 next week." It sounds precise, but it hides the uncertainty. It will almost never be exactly right, and it does not tell you how wrong it might be.
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