DK-EWMA-LN v2 · AVAX prediction

Avalanche price prediction

$10.30

−1.36%

Prediction cone · now → 1 year

log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dotted

DUKOIN outlook

Bullish

1H · Strong Sell 4H · Sell 1D · Buy

Daily technicals40%

Buy — 9 buy, 6 sell, 1 neutral indicator votes.

4-hour technicals15%

Sell on the 4h chart.

Long-term trend15%

Price is above the 200-day average (+26.3%).

Derivatives positioning15%

Funding −10.6% annualised on Bybit: shorts paying longs — short-squeeze fuel. Open interest $74.11M.

Market sentiment15%

Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).

Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.

4 hoursintraday

$10.11 – $10.72

−2.9% / +2.9%

24 hourschecked

$9.79 – $11.07

−5.9% / +6.3%

7 dayschecked

$8.72 – $12.43

−16.2% / +19.4%

30 dayschecked

$6.84 – $15.85

−34.3% / +52.3%

90 dayschecked

Pro

Unlock 90d & 1y

1 yearscenario

Pro

Unlock 90d & 1y

checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.

Bull, base & bear targets

Scenario	7 days	30 days	1 year	What it would take
Bull · top 10%	$12.23 +19%	$15.47 +50%	$45.01 +337%	Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze (shorts are paying funding right now).
Base · median	$10.30	$10.30	$10.30	Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue.
Bear · bottom 10%	$8.68 −16%	$6.86 −33%	$2.36 −77%	Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further.

Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.

Past AVAX forecasts vs reality

Issued	Horizon	From	80% range	Outcome	Inside?
Oct 13 08:05	4H	$10.41	$10.11–$10.72	$10.23 −1.7%	✓
Oct 13 00:05	24H	$10.41	$9.79–$11.07	$10.24 −1.6%	✓
Oct 13 00:05	7D	$10.41	$8.72–$12.43	pending	—
Oct 13 00:05	30D	$10.41	$6.84–$15.85	pending	—

Live record: 4 hours 1 scored · 24 hours 1 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins

How this prediction is made

Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.

Full methodology · Avalanche research page · Alert me on big moves

Not financial advice

Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.