DK-EWMA-LN v2 · BNB prediction

BNB price prediction

$744.56

+0.32%

Prediction cone · now → 1 year

log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dotted

DUKOIN outlook

Neutral

1H · Strong Sell 4H · Sell 1D · Neutral

Daily technicals40%

Neutral — 8 buy, 7 sell, 1 neutral indicator votes.

4-hour technicals15%

Sell on the 4h chart.

Long-term trend15%

Price is above the 200-day average (+15.5%).

Derivatives positioning15%

Funding +3.6% annualised on Bybit: neutral funding. Open interest $104.53M.

Market sentiment15%

Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).

Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.

4 hoursintraday

$733 – $750

−1.1% / +1.1%

24 hourschecked

$726 – $758

−2.1% / +2.2%

7 dayschecked

$697 – $789

−6.0% / +6.4%

30 dayschecked

$640 – $859

−13.7% / +15.8%

90 dayschecked

Pro

Unlock 90d & 1y

1 yearscenario

Pro

Unlock 90d & 1y

checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.

Bull, base & bear targets

Scenario	7 days	30 days	1 year	What it would take
Bull · top 10%	$792 +6%	$863 +16%	$1,269 +70%	Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze.
Base · median	$745	$745	$745	Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue.
Bear · bottom 10%	$700 −6%	$643 −14%	$437 −41%	Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further.

Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.

Past BNB forecasts vs reality

Issued	Horizon	From	80% range	Outcome	Inside?
Oct 14 00:05	4H	$742	$733–$750	pending	—
Oct 14 00:05	24H	$742	$726–$758	pending	—
Oct 14 00:05	7D	$742	$697–$789	pending	—
Oct 14 00:05	30D	$742	$640–$859	pending	—
Oct 13 20:05	4H	$742	$734–$751	$742 −0.1%	✓
Oct 13 16:05	4H	$745	$736–$753	$742 −0.4%	✓
Oct 13 08:05	4H	$744	$736–$752	$739 −0.7%	✓
Oct 13 00:05	24H	$744	$728–$760	$742 −0.3%	✓
Oct 13 00:05	7D	$744	$699–$792	pending	—
Oct 13 00:05	30D	$744	$642–$863	pending	—

Live record: 4 hours 3 scored · 24 hours 1 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins

How this prediction is made

Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.

Full methodology · BNB research page · Alert me on big moves

Not financial advice

Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.