Canton price prediction
Prediction cone · now → 1 year
log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dottedDUKOIN outlook
Neutral
Buy — 7 buy, 5 sell, 4 neutral indicator votes.
Buy on the 4h chart.
Price is below the 200-day average (−7.2%).
Funding +2.5% annualised on Bybit: neutral funding. Open interest $17.76M.
Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).
Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.
checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.
Bull, base & bear targets
| Scenario | 7 days | 30 days | 1 year | What it would take |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull · top 10% | $0.1449 +17% | $0.1795 +45% | $0.474 +282% | Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze. |
| Base · median | $0.124 | $0.124 | $0.124 | Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue. |
| Bear · bottom 10% | $0.1061 −14% | $0.08568 −31% | $0.03244 −74% | Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further. |
Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.
Past CC forecasts vs reality
| Issued | Horizon | From | 80% range | Outcome | Inside? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 04:05 | 4H | $0.1247 | $0.1211–$0.1283 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 4H | $0.1255 | $0.122–$0.1292 | $0.1247 −0.7% | ✓ |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 24H | $0.1255 | $0.1192–$0.1322 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 7D | $0.1255 | $0.108–$0.1459 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 30D | $0.1255 | $0.08785–$0.1794 | pending | — |
| Oct 13 20:05 | 4H | $0.1264 | $0.1228–$0.1301 | $0.1255 −0.7% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 16:05 | 4H | $0.129 | $0.1254–$0.1328 | $0.1264 −2.0% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 24H | $0.1223 | $0.1159–$0.129 | $0.1255 +2.7% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 7D | $0.1223 | $0.1047–$0.1428 | pending | — |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 30D | $0.1223 | $0.08462–$0.1766 | pending | — |
Live record: 4 hours 3 scored · 24 hours 1 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins
How this prediction is made
- Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
- Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
- No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
- Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.
Full methodology · Canton research page · Alert me on big moves
Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.