DK-EWMA-LN v2 · ETH prediction

Ethereum price prediction

$2,516

+0.45%

Prediction cone · now → 1 year

log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dotted

DUKOIN outlook

Neutral

1H · Strong Sell 4H · Sell 1D · Neutral

Daily technicals40%

Neutral — 7 buy, 7 sell, 2 neutral indicator votes.

4-hour technicals15%

Sell on the 4h chart.

Long-term trend15%

Price is above the 200-day average (+17.4%).

Derivatives positioning15%

Funding +2.0% annualised on Bybit: neutral funding. Open interest $1.81B.

Market sentiment15%

Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).

Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.

4 hoursintraday

$2,461 – $2,537

−1.5% / +1.5%

24 hourschecked

$2,436 – $2,563

−2.5% / +2.6%

7 dayschecked

$2,322 – $2,689

−7.1% / +7.6%

30 dayschecked

$2,100 – $2,973

−16.0% / +19.0%

90 dayschecked

Pro

Unlock 90d & 1y

1 yearscenario

Pro

Unlock 90d & 1y

checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.

Bull, base & bear targets

Scenario	7 days	30 days	1 year	What it would take
Bull · top 10%	$2,707 +8%	$2,994 +19%	$4,726 +88%	Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze.
Base · median	$2,516	$2,516	$2,516	Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue.
Bear · bottom 10%	$2,338 −7%	$2,114 −16%	$1,339 −47%	Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further.

Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.

Past ETH forecasts vs reality

Issued	Horizon	From	80% range	Outcome	Inside?
Oct 14 00:05	4H	$2,499	$2,461–$2,537	pending	—
Oct 14 00:05	24H	$2,499	$2,436–$2,563	pending	—
Oct 14 00:05	7D	$2,499	$2,322–$2,689	pending	—
Oct 14 00:05	30D	$2,499	$2,100–$2,973	pending	—
Oct 13 20:05	4H	$2,508	$2,470–$2,547	$2,499 −0.4%	✓
Oct 13 16:05	4H	$2,519	$2,481–$2,558	$2,508 −0.4%	✓
Oct 13 08:05	4H	$2,527	$2,488–$2,565	$2,498 −1.1%	✓
Oct 13 00:05	24H	$2,527	$2,463–$2,592	$2,499 −1.1%	✓
Oct 13 00:05	7D	$2,527	$2,345–$2,722	pending	—
Oct 13 00:05	30D	$2,527	$2,117–$3,016	pending	—

Live record: 4 hours 3 scored · 24 hours 1 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins

How this prediction is made

Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.

Full methodology · Ethereum research page · Alert me on big moves

Not financial advice

Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.