DK-EWMA-LN v2 · SPX prediction

SPX6900 price prediction

$0.3653

−1.62%

Prediction cone · now → 1 year

log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dotted

DUKOIN outlook

Bearish

1H · Strong Sell 4H · Sell 1D · Strong Sell

Daily technicals40%

Strong Sell — 3 buy, 12 sell, 1 neutral indicator votes.

4-hour technicals15%

Sell on the 4h chart.

Long-term trend15%

Price is below the 200-day average (−4.7%).

Derivatives positioning15%

Funding +5.5% annualised on Bybit: neutral funding. Open interest $11.26M.

Market sentiment15%

Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).

Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.

4 hoursintraday

pending

first slot not issued yet

24 hourschecked

$0.3428 – $0.3892

−6.1% / +6.5% · live

7 dayschecked

$0.3039 – $0.439

−16.8% / +20.2% · live

30 dayschecked

$0.2361 – $0.5651

−35.4% / +54.7% · live

90 dayschecked

$0.1686 – $0.7914

−53.8% / +116.7% · live

1 yearscenario

$0.07501 – $1.78

−79.5% / +386.9% · live

checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.

Bull, base & bear targets

Scenario	7 days	30 days	1 year	What it would take
Bull · top 10%	$0.439 +20%	$0.5651 +55%	$1.78 +387%	Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze.
Base · median	$0.3653	$0.3653	$0.3653	Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue.
Bear · bottom 10%	$0.3039 −17%	$0.2361 −35%	$0.07501 −79%	Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further.

Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.

Past SPX forecasts vs reality

Issued	Horizon	From	80% range	Outcome	Inside?
No forecasts recorded yet for this coin.

Live record: 4 hours 0 scored · 24 hours 0 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins

How this prediction is made

Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.

Full methodology · SPX6900 research page · Alert me on big moves

Not financial advice

Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.