TRON price prediction
Prediction cone · now → 1 year
log scale · 80% band, inner 50% band, median dottedDUKOIN outlook
Bearish
Strong Sell — 2 buy, 11 sell, 3 neutral indicator votes.
Strong Sell on the 4h chart.
Price is below the 200-day average (−0.7%).
Funding −40.1% annualised on Bybit: shorts paying longs — short-squeeze fuel. Open interest $52.16M.
Fear & Greed 69 (Greed).
Signal backtest: 50% hit rate (7d) · no edge vs coin flip. Context, not a call.
checked = 80% band held ~80% of outcomes in the 2018–2026 walk-forward backtest · scenario = 1-year envelope (only ~7 independent years to test) · intraday = 4h from hourly volatility, scored by the live record.
Bull, base & bear targets
| Scenario | 7 days | 30 days | 1 year | What it would take |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull · top 10% | $0.3377 +2% | $0.3476 +5% | $0.3959 +20% | Risk-on flows, a catalyst, or a short squeeze (shorts are paying funding right now). |
| Base · median | $0.3307 | $0.3307 | $0.3307 | Volatility continues at today's pace with no shock. Zero drift: the model doesn't assume trends continue. |
| Bear · bottom 10% | $0.3239 −2% | $0.3147 −5% | $0.2763 −16% | Broad sell-off or negative news. Real crashes can go further. |
Move-size probabilities (±5/10/20%), 90-day and 1-year detail are in Pro.
Past TRX forecasts vs reality
| Issued | Horizon | From | 80% range | Outcome | Inside? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 04:05 | 4H | $0.3313 | $0.3305–$0.3321 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 4H | $0.3271 | $0.3263–$0.3279 | $0.3313 +1.3% | ✗ |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 24H | $0.3271 | $0.3246–$0.3295 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 7D | $0.3271 | $0.32–$0.3343 | pending | — |
| Oct 14 00:05 | 30D | $0.3271 | $0.3106–$0.3444 | pending | — |
| Oct 13 20:05 | 4H | $0.3287 | $0.3279–$0.3295 | $0.3271 −0.5% | ✗ |
| Oct 13 16:05 | 4H | $0.3273 | $0.3265–$0.3281 | $0.3287 +0.4% | ✗ |
| Oct 13 08:05 | 4H | $0.3289 | $0.3281–$0.3297 | $0.3286 −0.1% | ✓ |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 24H | $0.3295 | $0.3271–$0.332 | $0.3271 −0.8% | ✗ |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 7D | $0.3295 | $0.3226–$0.3367 | pending | — |
| Oct 13 00:05 | 30D | $0.3295 | $0.3132–$0.3467 | pending | — |
Live record: 4 hours 4 scored · 24 hours 1 scored · 7 days 0 scored · 30 days 0 scored · 90 days 0 scored · 1 year 0 scored · all coins
How this prediction is made
- Volatility from daily (and hourly for 4h) price moves, weighted toward recent days (EWMA, λ 0.94).
- Bands widened per horizon by factors fitted on 2018–2026 history so the 80% band holds ~80% of outcomes (crypto has fat tails).
- No drift: the model doesn't assume today's trend continues — direction is the job of signals, which are scored separately.
- Every forecast is written to an append-only ledger before the outcome and scored automatically.
Full methodology · TRON research page · Alert me on big moves
Predictions are probability ranges, not promises. Crypto can move far outside any range.